NPL 2026 playoff scenarios
The top four after 28 league matches reach the playoffs. 28 league matches are left. Chances update automatically after every result.
| Team | Pts | Left | Max | Top 4 | Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Biratnagar Kings | 0 | 7 | 14 | 50% | 25% |
 Chitwan Rhinos | 0 | 7 | 14 | 51% | 25% |
 Janakpur Bolts | 0 | 7 | 14 | 50% | 25% |
 Karnali Yaks | 0 | 7 | 14 | 50% | 25% |
 Kathmandu Gorkhas | 0 | 7 | 14 | 50% | 26% |
 Lumbini Lions | 0 | 7 | 14 | 50% | 25% |
 Pokhara Avengers | 0 | 7 | 14 | 50% | 25% |
 Sudurpaschim Royals | 0 | 7 | 14 | 50% | 25% |
What Biratnagar Kings need
In contention Biratnagar Kings have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 50%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 87%
- Win 3 of 7: 12%
- Win 2 of 7: 0%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Chitwan Rhinos (Tue, 27 Oct 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Karnali Yaks (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Sudurpaschim Royals (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Janakpur Bolts (Tue, 3 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Kathmandu Gorkhas (Thu, 5 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Pokhara Avengers (Thu, 12 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Lumbini Lions (Sat, 14 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT)
What Chitwan Rhinos need
In contention Chitwan Rhinos have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 51%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 89%
- Win 3 of 7: 13%
- Win 2 of 7: 0%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Biratnagar Kings (Tue, 27 Oct 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Lumbini Lions (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Sudurpaschim Royals (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Pokhara Avengers (Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Kathmandu Gorkhas (Mon, 9 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Janakpur Bolts (Fri, 13 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Karnali Yaks (Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT)
What Janakpur Bolts need
In contention Janakpur Bolts have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 50%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 88%
- Win 3 of 7: 13%
- Win 2 of 7: <1%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Karnali Yaks (Tue, 27 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Kathmandu Gorkhas (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Pokhara Avengers (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Biratnagar Kings (Tue, 3 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Lumbini Lions (Thu, 5 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Sudurpaschim Royals (Tue, 10 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Chitwan Rhinos (Fri, 13 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT)
What Karnali Yaks need
In contention Karnali Yaks have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 50%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 87%
- Win 3 of 7: 13%
- Win 2 of 7: <1%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Janakpur Bolts (Tue, 27 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Biratnagar Kings (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Kathmandu Gorkhas (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Sudurpaschim Royals (Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Pokhara Avengers (Mon, 9 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Lumbini Lions (Thu, 12 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Chitwan Rhinos (Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT)
What Kathmandu Gorkhas need
In contention Kathmandu Gorkhas have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 50%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 87%
- Win 3 of 7: 13%
- Win 2 of 7: 0%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Janakpur Bolts (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Karnali Yaks (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Biratnagar Kings (Thu, 5 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Lumbini Lions (Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Chitwan Rhinos (Mon, 9 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Sudurpaschim Royals (Fri, 13 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Pokhara Avengers (Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT)
What Lumbini Lions need
In contention Lumbini Lions have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 50%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 87%
- Win 3 of 7: 12%
- Win 2 of 7: <1%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Sudurpaschim Royals (Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Chitwan Rhinos (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Pokhara Avengers (Tue, 3 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Janakpur Bolts (Thu, 5 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Kathmandu Gorkhas (Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Karnali Yaks (Thu, 12 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Biratnagar Kings (Sat, 14 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT)
What Pokhara Avengers need
In contention Pokhara Avengers have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 50%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 88%
- Win 3 of 7: 12%
- Win 2 of 7: 0%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Sudurpaschim Royals (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Janakpur Bolts (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Lumbini Lions (Tue, 3 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Chitwan Rhinos (Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Karnali Yaks (Mon, 9 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Biratnagar Kings (Thu, 12 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Kathmandu Gorkhas (Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT)
What Sudurpaschim Royals need
In contention Sudurpaschim Royals have 0 points with 7 league games left (maximum 14). Winning 5 of 7 gives them a >99% chance of the top four. Overall chance of the playoffs: 50%.
- Win 7 of 7: >99%
- Win 6 of 7: >99%
- Win 5 of 7: >99%
- Win 4 of 7: 87%
- Win 3 of 7: 12%
- Win 2 of 7: 0%
- Win 1 of 7: 0%
- Win 0 of 7: 0%
Remaining: v Lumbini Lions (Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Pokhara Avengers (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Biratnagar Kings (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Chitwan Rhinos (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Karnali Yaks (Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT), v Janakpur Bolts (Tue, 10 Nov 2026, 5:00 PM NPT), v Kathmandu Gorkhas (Fri, 13 Nov 2026, 12:30 PM NPT)
How these numbers are calculated
We simulate the rest of the league 20,000 times. Each remaining match is treated as a coin toss, a win is worth 2 points, and teams level on points are separated by wins and then net run rate, which is varied around each team’s current NRR. “Top 4” is the share of simulations in which a team finishes in the playoff places. “Qualified” and “Eliminated” are mathematical certainties on points alone.
The live win probability on match pages uses runs needed, balls left and wickets in hand against this season’s average first-innings score. Both are fan-made estimates, not official figures. See the points table and the NRR and playoffs explainer.